However they agree that massive numbers at the Bersih 3.0 rally could see the postponement of the general election.
PETALING JAYA: Political observers have voiced doubt over Bersih 3.0′s anticipated turnout for its rally on April 28, cautioning that the target is both “ambitious” and “unrealistic”.
Following its announcement of the rally yesterday, Bersih’s co-chairperson and national laureate A Samad Said, declared that Bersih expected a 500,000 strong crowd.
“When I am walking on the streets, on Facebook, in emails, so many people have been asking me, ‘When is the next one?’ Based on this, we can estimate that 500,000 will turn up,” he had said.
However, Ong Kian Ming of UCSI University believed that a more realistic number would be double that of the Bersih 2.0 crowd last July which drew 15,000 people to the streets.
“Perhaps (Samad Said) was trying to set a big number in order to capture the headlines or he may be including people from other parts of the country as well.
“But even if it was the entire country, this number is still too high since these kinds of public gatherings tend to be more well attended in KL and have not breached 50,000 in nearly all cases,” he said.
He stated that even a repeat of Bersih 2.0 would be an accomplishment since the Bersih 3.0 momentum was not as strong given that the govermment and the Election Commission (EC) had yet to formally respond to the recommendations of the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) on electoral reforms.
Big number is bad news for Najib
Former journalist and author of “No More Bullshit Please We are Malaysians” Kee Thuan Chye shared Ong’s skepticism and added that even a target of 100,000 was a stretch.
What he deemed of greater importance was that all major cities in the country, including Kuching and Kota Kinabalu, hold simultaneous rallies in a show of solidarity.
“The coming rally goes beyond political reforms to the heart of what people really feel about the government,” he said. “And if the numbers are strong it will spell bad news for (prime minister) Najib (Tun Razak) and Barisan Nasional.”
“But if the numbers falter then Bersih 3.0 will be just another rally involving the same hardcore anti-BN group. The numbers are crucial and hinge on whether Bersih’s three new demands resonate with the people,” he added.
The three key demands that would form the focus of the rally were the EC’s resignation, the cleaning up of the electoral roll before the next general election and the inclusion of international observers to monitor the polls.
The crowd size would inevitably also have an impact on the date of the next general election which is speculated to be held in June.
Ong said that a turnout of 500,000 would definitely cause Najib to rethink a June date since he would not have anticipated such a huge local groundswell of dissatisfaction for his administration.
James Chin of Monash University had said in a earlier interview that even a crowd of 100,000 would push Najib to postpone a June election lest the public thinks he was “running scared.”
“And in Malaysia if the people smell your fear, you are done for,” he had stated.
Ong added that if a lesser crowd showed up, however, the more important question would be how the police would respond to this gathering.
“If 50,000 show up and the police respond like what they did during Bersih 2.0, there will be negative political repercussions for the government,” he said.
“But if the march goes on peacefully with 50,000, I think the political impact will be less,” he added.
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