Thursday 2 August 2012

Not all joy in Johor — Sakmongkol AK47

AUG 2 — I have deliberately left out analysing my home state Pahang for the moment. Let’s leave the best to last. I want to do a Johor analysis.

Now Johor has always been touted as a bastion of Umno. The Johor Malays seem to have a peculiar obsessive trait with Umno. Since Umno was said to be born on the steps of the Johor Istana, Johor is considered as the natural home for Umno. It’s nearly invincible.

But is it so?

Each morning, the Johor Malay after subuh prayers will have his cup of coffee with his breakfast. What does he read first over all else. He reads Utusan Malaysia, the propaganda mouthpiece of Umno. The dispossessed, the downtrodden Malay masses appear enamoured with Umno.

But what was the figure we read during the last elections? There was a 14 per cent swing to the opposition. What has happened to that swing? It is increasing and getting stronger. This has got the MB worried, intimating to Umno division heads at one meeting that he expects at least nine parliamentary seats and up to 16 state seats will fall to the opposition.

That means he has not discounted fully the swing to the opposition, acknowledging that at best, with all the efforts and the bribery that Umno has carried out, Umno has managed to claim back only some 5 per cent. That will still leave around a 9 per cent swing with the opposition. With that conservative assumption, nine parliamentary seats are indeed in jeopardy.

My own estimate indicates that PR can win outright nine parliamentary seats. The seats currently held by Umno/BN but can be dicey include six more seats of:

1. Tanjung Piai
2. Gelang Patah
3. Pulai
4. Pasir Gudang Tebrau
5. Simpang Renggam
6. Parit Sulong

Really then, the number of parliamentary seats that could end with PR will be between nine and 15.
What does that make Johor? It is no longer a bastion of Umno.

What about Johor Baru which has a sizeable Chinese population who could prove to be a boon to PR? It depends on who is the Umno candidate. If Shahrir Samad chooses to retire, then JB will switch to PR. Shahrir can only be persuaded to stand if the Umno people stokes his contempt for Anwar Ibrahim. He himself is not that confident. He has said privately that most of the faces he sees in JB are not familiar to him.

The other seat which I am interested to see is Pulai. It’s currently held by the chairman of UDA, Nurjazlan Mohamad Rahmat. A decent fellow but has recently been the victim of Umno’s habit of practising infanticide.

It kills off its young talent. When Jazlan came up with a strategy of raising money for UDA with the redevelopment of the Pudu Jail area, he became a victim to the ravenous appetite of Umno warlords ever on the lookout of using government to make tons of money. —

1 comment:

  1. Saudara-saudara dan Saudari-saudari Yang Di Hormati
    Bahawa MCA Gombak pegurusi YIP KUM FOOK dan anaknya Yip Jiun Hann (Permuda MCA Gombak) bukan sahaja menggunakan kuasanya menghisap wang KUIL BUDDHA SAMNAK SAMBODHI(Thai) No: 19 Jalan 38 Taman Desa Jaya, Kepong, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Tetapi lebih dahsyat, ialah menipu wanita-wanita dan merosakan keluarga orang lain. Mereka sebenar-benarnya orang yang jahat dan tak bermoral

    Saya mengemukakan kesal yang benar ini, tujuan ialah harap orang ramai, khasnya wanita dapat mengambil perhatian supaya jangan terjerat oleh manis-manis mulutnya akhir akan meninpa kerugian dan kesakitan yang besar

    马华公会鹅唛區会主席叶金福律师与马华公会鹅唛區会叶君瀚青年圑長, 不但无耻的利用KUIL BUDDHA SAMNAK SAMBODHI(Thai) No: 19 Jalan 38 Taman Desa Jaya, Kepong, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.宗教之名捞取权和私利之外, 叧一大罪悪是, 他们仗着权势, 甜言蜜語, 誘骗良家少女, 骗财骗色, 三妻四妾, 破坏别人的家庭. 父子两人, 无悪不做, 实是大色狼, 大老千,缺德的败娄.

    今天我把实事公告大家, 是希望公众, 特别是良家少女, 要多多小心, 提防这一娄假面具的佛教徒, 以免一失足成千古恨.

    Brother And Sister Of the respectfully
    That YIP KUM FOOK, MCA Gombak chairman and his son Yip Jiun Hann (Youth MCA Gombak) they are not only used of power to suck Temple’s money of SAMNAK SAMBODHI BUDDHIST TEMPLE(Thai) No: 19 Jalan 38 Taman Desa Jaya, Kepong, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. But far worse, they are cheating women and make people family broken. They truly wicked and immoral

    Bring forward. I regret that this is true, the purpose is to hope for public, and especially women take care not to be trapped by the end of sweet mouth will override of great loss and pain