Tuesday, 3 July 2012

Analyst: PM may postpone GE to wait for DAP split

A political scholar has shed a new light on the reason behind Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s possible plan to call general election next year - the DAP party election that will be held in December this year.

NONE“Najib has waited for so long until there is not much favourable time left for him. Of course he can grab the opportunity after tabling the Budget, that would mean holding the general election in November.

“However, he may also hope that the Parliament could be dissolved after the DAP party elections,” said Ooi Kee Beng (right), deputy director of Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas) to Oriental Daily.

The Chinese daily quoted Ooi as saying that every party polls will lead to internal tussles and a split, providing an opportunity for Najib.

malaysia parliament 060508“Najib may want to wait for DAP to hold its party election in December, hoping that there will be split in the party after the election.

“If that is his plan, he will call the 13th general election in February or March next year,” he explained.

Malaysiakini learnt that DAP will hold its national level party polls on Dec 15 and the state level elections will start as early as October.

A split in DAP, the biggest threat to MCA, may help Najib in garnering the support of Chinese voters, which is crucial for him to score a better result than the last general election to ensure his own political survival in Umno.

selangor adun ceremony 220408 teng chang kimThe party polls in 2010 saw an intense contest between two major factions in Selangor DAP led by state speaker Teng Chang Khim (left) and state exco member Teresa Kok, respectively. 

The aggressive campaigns of both factions had further widened the cracks in Selangor DAP which have yet to be healed until today.

According to the Oriental Daily report, another Iseas senior fellow, Lee Hock Guan, expected up to 80 percent of Chinese voters in Johor will throw their support behind the opposition, causing MCA to surrender more seats in the state to DAP.

However, the possibility of Pakatan taking over Putrajaya is still very small as Umno’s grip on Johor will not be easily shaken, he said.

Ooi shared a similar view, expecting the opposition to make more inroads in urban and semi-urban constituencies, but changes in rural areas would be slow.

“I don’t think the opposition can win the Johor state government in the next general election, but based on Umno’s current status in Johor, there can be only one direction, that is to go downhill,” he said.

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