JULY 25 — “This is just another of those crony-enriching projects …
“And those in the know at that time, and knowing Rozali’s
(limited) abilities and background, immediately knew he was merely a
front man for an Umno warlord, and you can guess who.
“So no surprise that he didn’t keep the hard part of the bargain,
that is, to reduce the NRW (non-revenue water). This is water that
leaks out of old pipes, ductile iron and also asbestos pipes, and also
“The Selangor government is billed for processed/treated water
that leaves the treatment plants, that is, billed on gross volume, but
it can only sell to consumers 70 per cent, after losing 30 per cent NRW.
So herein lies the problem. If the 30 per cent NRW is cut down by
Syabas then there may be no need for Langat 2.
“But Rozali is not the man for the job. He specializes in milking
Syabas. When there was a need to replace or add pipelines, instead of
buying cheaper locally made ductile iron pipes (several Malaysian
manufacturers), he went to Indonesia to buy a plant and supplied Syabas
with expensive pipes from his own plant. Well, he was clever only in
“Selangor should slug it out with the BN government. The people will support the MB.”
I could not summarise it better to describe what’s happening to
Selangor with the water issue. With the water issue as background, let’s
see how BN fares against the incumbent government.
The Umno information chief says it’s mobilising the 6,667 operation
centres in preparation for the GE13.
Mobilising means what? Repainting
that old hut and cutting the foliage and growth that has claimed the
unused operations centre? Putting up maps, flags, installing TV and
karaoke machines? Don’t forget to order a table for the blackjack
The general election is expected to be held in September. That’s the
best window of opportunity for Umno to have the GE. Later dates would
place Umno in a very precarious position to do damage control on issues
that are coming out of the woodwork. Also Umno thinks what it has done
in terms of handing money and cash to the public is sufficient to bring
back the swing voters it lost in the GE12.
We are not going to dispute that assessment. But we are not going to
overrate its chances in getting back what it has lost either. On
average, the vote swing towards the opposition in 2008 was around 12 per
cent. In Selangor the swing was on average 20 per cent.
With all the money it has given out, all the propaganda it dishes out
through the media industrial complex (audio, visual and the new media
Umno owns and controls) it has probably succeeded in getting back at the
most 5 per cent.
That still leaves a 7 per cent vote swing in favour of Pakatan on the
whole. In Selangor and Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur with 11
parliamentary seats, Pakatan still has a surplus of 15 per cent. That is
assuming that while Umno went on the offensive, Pakatan has been
PM Najib Razak has received favourable reports. Never mind if they
are inflated by 30 per cent. Najib has already collected postal votes
from students at overseas centres, which will be added to the overall
votes Umno and BN expect to get.
But Umno goes into this election mindful of the fact that in 2008, it
secured only 2.38 million of the 7.88 million votes. It got two million
votes of the 5.7 million Malay votes. PAS and PKR got more Malay votes
So it’s no wonder Umno has spent all efforts and time at dehumanizing
Anwar Ibrahim to get the public to look at Anwar Ibrahim as a sex fiend
and a morally depraved being who is not morally fit to head this
country. Only an animal is described as how Anwar Ibrahim is described.
But here is the hard truth: We may not like Anwar Ibrahim for
whatever reasons we have, but if the people wills it that he heads the
country, what can we with our “pristine” moral scruples do?
DAP secured more Chinese votes than both MCA and Gerakan combined.
Now, we can expect the MCA and DAP to be obliterated. BN is all Umno
now. The MCA and MIC boys should take a hard look at themselves and
start thinking whether it’s prudent to stay on the side of the
It’s better for them to cast their lot with Pakatan. If I were a
Malaysian Indian, after the “hang Ambiga” outburst, I would be ashamed
to support Umno/BN. It would be dishonourable for any Malaysian Indian
to support Umno.
Now that Umno is really ready to go the polls allow us to reveal to
them a few facts. In 2008, there was an average of 12 per cent vote
swing to the opposition. Let’s say with the amount of money that Umno
has given out and all those corporate moves that fatten their war chest,
that vote swing obtained by the opposition in 2008, is reduced by 5 per
cent. That still leaves the opposition party- Pakatan with around 7 per
cent vote swing.
If the swing remains at 7 per cent, BN will likely be left with less than 90 seats. They are out!
The PM wants to get Selangor back at all costs. He knows in 2008,
voter swing was biggest in Selangor at 20.9 per cent and in FT Kuala
Lumpur at 20.5 per cent. He’s pulling all the stops to recapture
The biggest single blunder Umno/BN made was to use water as a weapon
to pummel the people of Selangor into submission. That is the most
despicable and heinous action Umno/BN took. It’s going to be fatal to
The people of Selangor must stand solidly behind Tan Sri Khalid
Ibrahim in facing this version of biological warfare visited upon them
by the evil Umno/BN power crazy leadership. The Selangor government
should start thinking of setting up a new water supply company to
replace Syabas altogether.
Or it should start building a state owned water treatment plant. With
the heinous and unconscionable strategies expected from Umno/BN,
Selangor government must develop a siege mentality as defence. The
people of Selangor must never cower at the face of this bestial
behaviour of the Umno government.
This single treacherous act by Umno /BN will only cause the vote
swing obtained in 2008 to be entrenched and even escalate. For Selangor I
predict the vote swing will stay around 15 per cent. With 15 per cent
vote swing, how will the Pakatan fare in Selangor?
Umno can only retain the current 6 parliamentary seats it has if over
the 4 years, Umno has regained 18 per cent of the swing votes it lost
in 2008. That is very unlikely given the gangster-style manner Umno is
taking to recapture Selangor.
Even if Umno has recovered 10 percentage points, Umno will never
regain Selangor. Noh Omar and others hanging on their seats will be
enjoying life as private citizens. Khir Toyo will pursue a rewarding
career as a Tempe seller and Noh Omar will be a prawn farmer.
This is what will happen in Selangor under different vote swing
scenarios. This was taken from a private intelligence study on the
impact of vote swings on the future of BN and PR. —
* Sakmongkol AK47 is the nom de plume of Datuk Mohd Ariff Sabri Abdul Aziz. He was Pulau Manis assemblyman (2004-2008).
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